當地時間9月20日(ri)，印度東北部比(bi)(bi)哈爾邦有21人(ren)遭雷擊身亡(wang)(wang)，死(si)者(zhe)多為在(zai)田里干活的(de)農民。今年6月和(he)7月，比(bi)(bi)哈爾邦已有數十(shi)人(ren)因雷擊死(si)亡(wang)(wang)。數據(ju)顯示(shi)，印度去年被雷電擊中(zhong)死(si)亡(wang)(wang)的(de)人(ren)數達2869人(ren)，同比(bi)(bi)激增34%。此類(lei)雷電事件反常與否，是否在(zai)加劇？與全球氣候變暖有關(guan)嗎？我(wo)國的(de)情況如(ru)(ru)何(he)？該(gai)如(ru)(ru)何(he)防范？

印(yin)度(du)每年6月(yue)至9月(yue)是季(ji)風雨季(ji)，雷(lei)暴天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)頻發(fa)(fa)，雷(lei)擊造成傷(shang)亡事件時有(you)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。“印(yin)度(du)主要受(shou)南亞季(ji)風控(kong)制，近(jin)期季(ji)風槽誘(you)發(fa)(fa)的低(di)(di)層季(ji)風低(di)(di)壓(ya)更加(jia)強(qiang)盛，加(jia)上(shang)北邊(bian)的冷空(kong)氣(qi)(qi)南下之后(hou)與季(ji)風低(di)(di)壓(ya)結合，冷暖空(kong)氣(qi)(qi)交匯很容易(yi)誘(you)發(fa)(fa)雷(lei)電等強(qiang)對(dui)流天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)。”唐文苑說，“從(cong)強(qiang)對(dui)流天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)的發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)發(fa)(fa)展條(tiao)件來看，當前印(yin)度(du)處于(yu)副熱帶(dai)高壓(ya)邊(bian)緣(yuan)，水汽(qi)和能(neng)量條(tiao)件都很好，有(you)利(li)于(yu)雷(lei)暴活動發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。”

印度(du)科學與環(huan)境中心的研究(jiu)報告顯(xian)示，從2020年(nian)4月到2021年(nian)3月，印度(du)的雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)次數增(zeng)加了(le)34%，發生(sheng)雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)現象1850萬次，同(tong)一(yi)時期(qi)有1697人因雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)事(shi)故(gu)身亡。印度(du)專家指(zhi)出，雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)傷人事(shi)故(gu)多(duo)集中在(zai)印度(du)北(bei)部(bu)和中部(bu)的農村地區(qu)。每年(nian)雨(yu)季來臨(lin)時，不少(shao)農民(min)在(zai)田間勞作，這使得他(ta)們容易成為雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)事(shi)故(gu)的受(shou)害者。目(mu)前(qian)印度(du)政府已經在(zai)雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)多(duo)發地區(qu)安裝雷(lei)(lei)暴(bao)災害預警(jing)(jing)系統，在(zai)閃電等極端(duan)天氣來臨(lin)之前(qian)1小時通過短(duan)信預警(jing)(jing)，以避免雷(lei)(lei)擊(ji)(ji)傷人事(shi)故(gu)發生(sheng)。

不(bu)斷增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)擊(ji)事(shi)(shi)件與氣(qi)(qi)候(hou)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)、城市過(guo)度(du)擴(kuo)張(zhang)、環境(jing)污(wu)染等有著密切(qie)關(guan)系。2014年《科(ke)學(xue)》雜志曾發(fa)(fa)表文章(zhang)稱，隨著地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)球(qiu)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)暖(nuan)，閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)活(huo)動(dong)也變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)得(de)(de)更(geng)(geng)(geng)加(jia)(jia)頻繁(fan)。全(quan)球(qiu)氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)每上升1℃，美國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事(shi)(shi)件就(jiu)將(jiang)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)約12%。如果到本世紀末地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)球(qiu)氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)上升4℃，那么美國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事(shi)(shi)件將(jiang)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)50%左右。另(ling)外(wai)有研(yan)究指出，隨著城市高(gao)建(jian)筑(zhu)物等增(zeng)多(duo)，會引發(fa)(fa)更(geng)(geng)(geng)多(duo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)上行閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，且(qie)高(gao)建(jian)筑(zhu)物會吸引周(zhou)圍(wei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，使得(de)(de)局部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)擊(ji)次數增(zeng)多(duo)。“關(guan)于(yu)氣(qi)(qi)候(hou)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)暖(nuan)背景(jing)(jing)下(xia)(xia)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域乃至全(quan)球(qiu)閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)活(huo)動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)趨(qu)勢(shi)，目前科(ke)學(xue)界尚(shang)未形成(cheng)統(tong)一(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)認(ren)識(shi)，這主(zhu)要(yao)是因為準確性高(gao)、一(yi)致性好且(qie)具有長時間跨度(du)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)資(zi)料(liao)(liao)相對(dui)(dui)缺乏。”蔣如斌(bin)說，根據氣(qi)(qi)候(hou)模式預(yu)測(ce)(ce)和(he)(he)(he)(he)相關(guan)理論分析，多(duo)數學(xue)者(zhe)認(ren)為氣(qi)(qi)候(hou)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)暖(nuan)會使得(de)(de)全(quan)球(qiu)閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)活(huo)動(dong)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)著增(zeng)多(duo)，但也有部(bu)(bu)分學(xue)者(zhe)基(ji)(ji)于(yu)云冰(bing)含量(liang)和(he)(he)(he)(he)云微物理參數分析，認(ren)為氣(qi)(qi)候(hou)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)暖(nuan)將(jiang)使得(de)(de)全(quan)球(qiu)閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)著減少。全(quan)球(qiu)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)密度(du)高(gao)值(zhi)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)主(zhu)要(yao)分布在(zai)海岸、山地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、中(zhong)尺度(du)氣(qi)(qi)旋多(duo)發(fa)(fa)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)以及熱(re)帶(dai)輻合(he)(he)帶(dai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)輻合(he)(he)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)內，大陸、沿海、海島(dao)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)所發(fa)(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)超過(guo)全(quan)球(qiu)總數的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)八成(cheng)，全(quan)球(qiu)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)活(huo)動(dong)主(zhu)要(yao)分布在(zai)赤道附近的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)陸地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，位于(yu)赤道附近的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)非(fei)洲(zhou)剛(gang)果盆地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)、東(dong)南亞(ya)(ya)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)和(he)(he)(he)(he)南美洲(zhou)亞(ya)(ya)馬孫河流域被(bei)稱為三個熱(re)帶(dai)“煙囪”。基(ji)(ji)于(yu)近20年的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)衛星(xing)和(he)(he)(he)(he)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)基(ji)(ji)閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)觀(guan)(guan)測(ce)(ce)資(zi)料(liao)(liao)，不(bu)同學(xue)者(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)究表明(ming)不(bu)同區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)活(huo)動(dong)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)趨(qu)勢(shi)存(cun)在(zai)明(ming)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)差異。例如，在(zai)北美東(dong)南部(bu)(bu)、南美中(zhong)部(bu)(bu)和(he)(he)(he)(he)澳(ao)大利亞(ya)(ya)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)著減少，而在(zai)南亞(ya)(ya)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)則顯(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)著增(zeng)多(duo)；在(zai)我國(guo)青藏高(gao)原地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)也持續增(zeng)多(duo)，這是由于(yu)該地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)暴(bao)天氣(qi)(qi)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)得(de)(de)更(geng)(geng)(geng)加(jia)(jia)頻繁(fan)。蔣如斌(bin)認(ren)為，基(ji)(ji)于(yu)近10年全(quan)國(guo)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)閃(shan)(shan)(shan)定(ding)位資(zi)料(liao)(liao)，尚(shang)未發(fa)(fa)現我國(guo)地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)閃(shan)(shan)(shan)活(huo)動(dong)具有明(ming)顯(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)趨(qu)勢(shi)，可能(neng)還需(xu)要(yao)補充(chong)衛星(xing)觀(guan)(guan)測(ce)(ce)資(zi)料(liao)(liao)做進一(yi)步探(tan)(tan)討(tao)。另(ling)外(wai)，由于(yu)我國(guo)幅員遼闊，全(quan)球(qiu)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)暖(nuan)背景(jing)(jing)下(xia)(xia)不(bu)同地(di)(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)趨(qu)勢(shi)可能(neng)并不(bu)一(yi)致。無論全(quan)球(qiu)和(he)(he)(he)(he)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)活(huo)動(dong)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)趨(qu)勢(shi)如何，波動(dong)越來越劇烈(lie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)天氣(qi)(qi)氣(qi)(qi)候(hou)將(jiang)給雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)預(yu)報(bao)預(yu)警(jing)(jing)帶(dai)來更(geng)(geng)(geng)大挑戰(zhan)。關(guan)于(yu)應對(dui)(dui)措施，專家認(ren)為，需(xu)要(yao)發(fa)(fa)展完善具有三維定(ding)位能(neng)力的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)高(gao)時空(kong)分辨率、高(gao)精度(du)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)監測(ce)(ce)體(ti)系，結合(he)(he)氣(qi)(qi)象業(ye)(ye)務天氣(qi)(qi)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)達，形成(cheng)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)災(zai)害(hai)天氣(qi)(qi)系統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)綜合(he)(he)探(tan)(tan)測(ce)(ce)能(neng)力；研(yan)究構建(jian)涵(han)蓋雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)暴(bao)和(he)(he)(he)(he)閃(shan)(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)多(duo)過(guo)程、多(duo)尺度(du)耦合(he)(he)機理，綜合(he)(he)利用基(ji)(ji)于(yu)實時資(zi)料(liao)(liao)外(wai)推(tui)、數值(zhi)模式、機器學(xue)習等技術方法的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)高(gao)精度(du)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)預(yu)報(bao)預(yu)警(jing)(jing)方法和(he)(he)(he)(he)系統(tong)；就(jiu)重點、高(gao)危、高(gao)風險區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域進行針對(dui)(dui)性的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)監測(ce)(ce)預(yu)警(jing)(jing)，并相應做好專業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)防(fang)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)避(bi)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)設(she)(she)施布設(she)(she)；對(dui)(dui)于(yu)存(cun)在(zai)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)雨環境(jing)下(xia)(xia)人(ren)員暴(bao)露風險的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)戶外(wai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域（如高(gao)海拔山區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)蟲草采挖區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)），加(jia)(jia)設(she)(she)臨時防(fang)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)躲避(bi)設(she)(she)施；加(jia)(jia)強雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)知識(shi)、雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)災(zai)害(hai)防(fang)護的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)科(ke)學(xue)普及和(he)(he)(he)(he)安(an)全(quan)教育，全(quan)面提升社(she)會和(he)(he)(he)(he)民眾的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)防(fang)雷(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)安(an)全(quan)和(he)(he)(he)(he)避(bi)險意識(shi)。